1. Trends & External Forces

CVS’ third quarter sales and profits beat forecasts

WOONSOCKET, R.I. —  CVS Health topped Wall Street’s estimates for third-quarter revenue and earnings.

Adjusted earnings per share of $2.21 exceeded analysts’ predicted $2.13, while revenue of $89.76 billion beat the forecast of $88.2 billion.

Karen Lynch

Karen Lynch

“Our colleagues helped us deliver another quarter of positive results across our business areas,” said president and CEO Karen Lynch. “Despite a challenging business environment, we continue adapting to the changing needs of our consumers by connecting our care delivery capabilities in communities across the country, broadening access to care and lowering costs.”

For the full year, the company maintained its adjusted EPS guidance range of $8.50 to $8.70.

Revenue for the period ended September 30 increased 10.6%, driven by growth across all segments. CVS reported net income of $2.265 billion, compared to a net loss of $3.399 billion in the year-ago period . The company generated operating income of $3.7 billion compared to a $3.9 billion operating loss in the prior year. The change was primarily driven by the absence of a $5.2 billion opioid litigation charge and a $2.5 billion loss on assets held for sale related to the write-down of the Omnicare long-term care business , both of which were recorded in the prior year.

Adjusted operating income increased 2.5% primarily driven by an increase in the Health Services segment, partially offset by a decline in the Health Care Benefits segment. Adjusted operating income for the Pharmacy & Consumer Wellness segment remained relatively consistent compared to the prior year.

Interest expense increased $127 million or 22.4%, due to higher debt to fund the acquisitions of Signify Health, Inc.  and Oak Street Health, Inc.  The company recorded income tax expense at an effective income tax rate of 25% compared to an income tax benefit at an effective income tax rate of 23.5% during the prior year due to the pre-tax loss incurred in the three months ended September 30, 2022. The difference in the effective income tax rate was primarily due to certain nondeductible legal charges recorded in the prior year.

Health Care Benefits segment

Total revenues increased 16.9% for the three months ended September 30, 2023 compared to the prior year driven by growth across all product lines. • Adjusted operating income decreased 6.4% for the three months ended September 30, 2023 compared to the prior year reflecting increased utilization in Medicare Advantage, including the impact of lower year-over-year prior period development, partially offset by higher net investment income in the three months ended September 30, 2023 compared to the prior year.

The MBR increased to 85.7% in the three months ended September 30, 2023 compared to 83.4% in the prior year driven by the impact of lower year-over-year prior period development and increased utilization in Medicare Advantage, including outpatient and supplemental benefits such as dental and behavioral health, as well as over-thecounter (“OTC”) and flex cards, compared to the prior year.

Medical membership as of September 30, 2023 of 25.7 million increased 54 thousand members compared with June 30, 2023, reflecting increases in the Commercial and Medicare product lines. These increases were partially offset by a decline in the Medicaid product line, primarily attributable to the resumption of Medicaid redeterminations following the expiration of the public health emergency.

During the three months ended September 30, 2023, the segment experienced modestly unfavorable development of prior-periods’ health care cost estimates in its Commercial business, primarily attributable to a prior period provider settlement. This experience was substantially offset by favorable development in its Government Services business.

Prior years’ health care costs payable estimates developed favorably by $665 million during the nine months ended September 30, 2023. This development is reported on a basis consistent with the prior years’ development reported in the health care costs payable table in the Company’s annual audited financial statements and does not directly correspond to an increase in 2023 operating results

Health Services segment

Total revenues increased 8.4% for the three months ended September 30, 2023 compared to the prior year primarily driven by pharmacy drug mix, growth in specialty pharmacy, brand inflation and the acquisitions of Oak Street Health and Signify Health. These increases were partially offset by continued pharmacy client price improvements.

Adjusted operating income increased 10.8% for the three months ended September 30, 2023 compared to the prior year primarily driven by improved purchasing economics, including increased contributions from the products and services of the Company’s group purchasing organization, as well as growth in specialty pharmacy. These increases were partially offset by continued pharmacy client price improvements.

Pharmacy claims processed decreased slightly on a 30-day equivalent basis for the three months ended September 30, 2023 compared to the prior year, reflecting the impact of a Medicaid customer contract change that occurred during the second quarter.

Pharmacy & Consumer Wellness segment

Total revenues increased 6.0% for the three months ended September 30, 2023 compared to the prior year primarily driven by pharmacy drug mix, increased prescription volume and brand inflation. These increases were partially offset by continued pharmacy reimbursement pressure, the impact of recent generic introductions, a decrease in store count and decreased sales of COVID-19 OTC test kits.

Adjusted operating income remained relatively consistent at $1.4 billion in each of the three-month periods ended September 30, 2023 and 2022, primarily due to continued pharmacy reimbursement pressure and decreased contributions from COVID-19 vaccinations, diagnostic testing and OTC test kits, largely offset by improved drug purchasing, the increased prescription volume described above and lower operating expenses during the three months ended September 30, 2023.

Prescriptions filled increased slightly on a 30-day equivalent basis for the three months ended September 30, 2023 compared to the prior year primarily driven by increased utilization, largely offset by a decrease in COVID-19 vaccinations and the decrease in store count. Excluding the impact of COVID-19 vaccinations, prescriptions filled increased 1.1% on a 30-day equivalent basis for the three months ended September 30, 2023 compared to the prior year.

Same store prescription volume(6)(12) increased 2.7% on a 30-day equivalent basis for the three months ended September 30, 2023 compared to the prior year, and increased 3.5% when excluding the impact of COVID-19 vaccinations.

The company revised its full-year 2023 GAAP diluted EPS guidance range to $6.37 to $6.61 from $6.53 to $6.75, and maintained its full-year 2023 cash flow from operations guidance range of $12.5 billion to $13.5 billion. The adjustments between full-year 2023 GAAP diluted EPS and adjusted EPS include amortization of intangible assets, net realized capital losses, acquisition-related transaction and integration costs related to the acquisitions of Signify Health and Oak Street Health, restructuring charges, office real estate optimization charges, a loss on assets held for sale and the corresponding income tax benefit or expense related to the items excluded from adjusted income.

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