1. Trends & External Forces

NRF Revises Down – Way Down – Retail Theft Estimates

From the New York Times:

“A national lobbying group has retracted its startling estimate that ‘organized retail crime’ was responsible for nearly half the $94.5 billion in store merchandise that disappeared in 2021, a figure that helped amplify claims that the United States was experiencing a nationwide wave of shoplifting.

“The group, the National Retail Federation, edited that claim last week from a widely cited report issued in April, after the trade publication Retail Dive revealed that faulty data had been used to arrive at the inaccurate figure.

“The retraction comes as retail chains like Target continue to claim that they are the victims of large shoplifting operations that have cut into profits, forcing them to close stores or inconvenience customers by locking products away.

“The claims have been fueled by widely shared videos of a few instances of brazen shoplifters, including images of masked groups smashing windows and grabbing high-end purses and cellphones. But the data show this impression of rampant criminality was a mirage.

“In fact, retail theft has been lower this year in most of the country than it was a few years ago, according to police data. Some exceptions, including New York City, exist. But in most major cities, shoplifting incidents have fallen 7 percent since 2019.”

KC’s View:

I just want to repeat that one sentence:

Retail theft has been lower this year in most of the country than it was a few years ago, according to police data.

That’s not to say it isn’t a problem.  But one has to wonder if maybe the problems that companies say result from theft – lower profits – might actually be attributable to something else.

See, for example, our next story about Dollar General.

The post NRF Revises Down – Way Down – Retail Theft Estimates appeared first on MNB.

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