New government projections for the coming decade suggest that hiring is likely to slow down, and that retail will be of the segments likely to suffer the most.
From Bloomberg:
“US employment gains will slow significantly and be more concentrated across few sectors in the decade through 2032 as population growth moderates, fresh government estimates show.
“The Bureau of Labor Statistics sees the economy adding almost 4.7 million jobs, or 0.3% annually. That’s well shy of the 1.2% annual increase in the decade that ended in 2022, projections from the Labor Department agency showed Wednesday. Estimated job growth would equal less than 40,000 jobs per month.”
According to the story, “The BLS anticipates that the health care and social assistance sector will add about 45% of all new jobs, due to an aging population. Professional and business services will add an additional 30%. Self-employment outside of agriculture is expected to rise 1.4% by 2032.
“By contrast, retail payrolls are expected to shrink 3.4%, while the automation of production activities will lead to a 0.8% drop in manufacturing jobs. Labor Department researchers expect cashiers, the fifth-largest occupation in the economy, to bear the brunt of the decline in retail employment. Almost 350,000 cashier jobs are expected to be eliminated, the government estimates.”
These jobs, of course, are going away to some degree because of both online shopping the self checkout/checkout free technology that makes the jobs unnecessary.
KC’s View:
First of all, it is important to acknowledge that modestly rising unemployment is good for the economy – it tends to result in lowered inflation.
The decline in retail payrolls, especially among cashiers, probably is inevitable. That’s what happens as technologies improve – certain jobs went away as horses gave way to cars, jobs will go away as gas-powered cars give way to electric vehicles, and so on. It is called progress, and it is not the enemy.
The question that remains – and it really only be answered by businesses, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics – is whether some businesses will differentiate themselves by embracing the ways in which their people can make a difference, can be a differential advantage.
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