[This is a preview from our full report “Measuring the Impact of California’s Inflation Relief Checks on Consumer Spending.” Download for free].
California’s October 2022 Middle Class Tax Refund (MCTR) payments of up to $1,050 buoyed spending across some of the largest retailers in the country, while leaving others unimpacted. Looking at some of the largest retailers in California, there was clear outspending among MCTR recipients across general merchandise, grocers, gas stations, and convenience stores in the four weeks ending October 29th.
Specifically spending at Sam’s Club, DoorDash, Stater Bros, Best Buy, and Smart & Final by MCTR recipients grew ~10 to 15 points faster than non-recipients. Walmart, Amazon, and Target saw 7 to 8 points. Taco Bell, McDonald’s, Jack in the Box, and Starbucks saw 5 to 6 points. Even JCPenney and Nordstrom – two department stores – saw 5 points of outspending.
In contrast, Macy’s and T.J.Maxx saw non-recipients outspend, as did Kohl’s, Chevron, The Home Depot, and eBay. This is likely as higher income earners who were not MCTR recipients are still spending on discretionary items at those retailers. Instacart, Ralphs, and Uber Eats had minimal difference between cohorts.
Download the full report, “Measuring the Impact of California’s Inflation Relief Checks on Consumer Spending,” for more.
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